Four to One: Auditing the Leaked DeepSeek Notes · 2026-08-06 · primary
Themes: US-China Framing · Economic Argument
Compute, not algorithms or talent, decides who can compete at the frontier.
The idea that whoever builds the fastest railcar - and not the most railroads - would attain pole position in a nü-industrial revolution, has always been absurd to me.[10] But I understand this can be difficult to grok if one reasons from theory-first rather than first-principles. Especially when the local echo chamber affirms said theories must be true by some unmeasurable intrinsic quality, or by recursively referring to other, more "authoritative" theories, for support. [Figure: chart/image — see original article]
Four to One: Auditing the Leaked DeepSeek Notes · 2026-08-06
Architectural and training efficiency is what lets a latecomer reach the frontier, so scarce compute is not disqualifying.
Does size matter? I think so. But it is not a guarantee of supremacy. I think this is more closely correlated to a model's performance-per-dollar - especially if they're already at the performance frontier on an absolute basis. We've already seen in other industries (NEVs in particular) how well this objective function performs in 内卷 dynamics. It seems to me an ecosystem like this creates conditions suitable for energy-compute apex predators: organisms that survive brutal domestic competition on thin margins, but with abundant infrastructure resources.
Four to One: Auditing the Leaked DeepSeek Notes · 2026-08-06
AI regulation in practice concentrates power in the largest labs rather than constraining them.
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